Jim Rogers, who worked with George Soros to build the multi-billion dollar Quantum Fund, feels that the US is “undoubtedly” in a state of recession. Not that I necessarily disagree with him; but I just feel that the market may need to make as much as a 10% correction before it can think of going back to being in the green. That could take as little as six months, given that there have been a lot of write-downs by financial institutions — or as long as a year or more.
Of course, that’s assuming that the shrub in power does not do something ridiculously stupid (you know, like attacking Iran) or some such crazy thing. In which case, we all can go back to living in caves etc.
And to top it off, Rodrigo Rato, the IMF chief, has warned that the dollar may suffer “abrupt failure”. And of course, other countries are taking steps to temper their local currencies from appreciating too much against the dollar, mostly because some of them are worried about a repeat of the late 1980s. This includes Asian countries (especially India and China) and of course some European countries which are wary of the sharp rise of the Euro against the US Dollar.
The US Treasury secretary had these pearls of wisdom to offer us –
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, addressing the plenary session of the 185-nation twin financial institutions, also sounded a note of caution.
“We need to continue to be vigilant, because all of our capital markets are not yet functioning normally,” Paulson said.
“Not yet functioning normally” — when financial institutions are announcing losses in multi-billions and profits fall over 90%, not normally is as good a phrase as any, I suppose.