Indy Telecom & Industrial Media

Fascinating piece by Barry Ritholtz comparing the bailout versus historic expenses after adjusted for inflation.

• Marshall Plan: Cost: $12.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $115.3 billion
• Louisiana Purchase: Cost: $15 million, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $217 billion
• Race to the Moon: Cost: $36.4 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $237 billion
• S&L Crisis: Cost: $153 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $256 billion
• Korean War: Cost: $54 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $454 billion
• The New Deal: Cost: $32 billion (Est), Inflation Adjusted Cost: $500 billion (Est)
• Invasion of Iraq: Cost: $551b, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $597 billion
• Vietnam War: Cost: $111 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $698 billion
• NASA: Cost: $416.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $851.2 billion

TOTAL: $3.92 trillion in 206 years.

BAILOUT TOTAL: ~$15 trillion and counting.

Of course, there are a few caveats. A very significant amount of that money (including the wars and the bailout) have been “borrowed” from the future. Truth be told, the only way we are ever going to pay back those amounts if by inflating our way through it. Not that it makes them any less real, but it brings about some interesting questions on the “true” value of such a cost.

In fact, one cannot even call the bailout a “cost” since that money hasn’t necessarily been “lost”. It has basically been invested in commercial paper — now, some of that may not be very good commercial paper, but that does not necessarily make it a sunk cost.

And while we we’re on that topic, I would much rather prefer commercial debt (and all that it entails) than what passes for treasury bonds (especially given the folks we’re beholden to). The only reason bond valuations are where they are is because of the wonderful job our treasury has been doing to make sure it stays that way.

Secondly, that figure does not include World War II. Or World War I.

The only single American event in history that even comes close to matching the cost of the credit crisis is World War II: Original Cost: $288 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $3.6 trillion

The $4.6165 trillion dollars committed so far is about a trillion dollars ($979 billion dollars) greater than the entire cost of World War II borne by the United States: $3.6 trillion, adjusted for inflation (original cost was $288 billion).

Of course, one could always argue that the Louisiana purchase got us good music, great food and the French Quarter.

My friend Rebecca sent this along — be warned that the accuracy of this has not been validated, but it looks about right.

The NYT has two excellent pieces on the current fiasco that’s been going on — What’s Worse Than a Flawed Bailout? and Revolt of the Nihilists.

Well worth reading.

The NYT has a good map that shows who voted for and against the bill.

I know where I’m moving to next…

…and we live in interesting times.

The markets are scary to watch right now.

If this bill does not go through, the harm done to the markets may take a long, long time to recover.  I once made a wager with a friend that the Dow will almost certainly not hit 4 digits.

Now, I’m not so sure.