Indy Telecom & Industrial Media

What do folks think the next big market bubble to burst?

Here are some choices that I’ve heard floating around –

1. Debt bubble (bonds) — A friend recently commented that at a recent investor meeting, this was raised as the next bubble that could burst. On one hand, some folks think that the fed could do negative interest rates, and on the other, a lot of European investors are supposedly preparing to to short the U.S. government bond market in anticipation of much higher interest rates in the coming months. If you want to see signs that bonds have jumped the shark, look no further than State Street’s new offering, first convertible bond ETF of its kind.
2. Gold — This has been a long time coming. The sooner the better, I feel. It is a commodity that has been overvalued beyond measure, and the current market isn’t helping. And just have a look at the number of gold ETFs out there.
3. Sovereign default –To quote PD, while it is unlikely that the Fed, ECB and the BOE will let this happen, we are on the precipitous edge.
4. Fall of a big bull – Another friend who’s a hedge fund manager quoted that bear market will not end until one of the big bulls of this era gets run over, and until a new bull takes the place. He thinks it could be Warren Buffet.

Personally, I’m more concerned about 1 and 2 (2 is a great shorting opportunity and 1 is a scary thought).  3 is unlikely, and 4 — well, let’s say I’m holding back on 4.

Disturbing charts that show the comparison of the four bad bear markets — Dow crash of 1929, Oil crisis of 1973, Tech crash of 2000 and the current sub-prime/credit crunch crisis.

The inflation/CPI adjusted ones are particularly scary in that they show just how closely we are mirroring the Great Depression.

(Via Paul Kedrosky)

Some more handmade cuff links made by Lana.

I really can’t say I have a favorite because they are all equally gorgeous. And here are some other handmade ones.

Dealbreaker recently talked about a rather fascinating yet disturbing article on a woman who was stuck in Dubai because her husband was arrested for losing his job and facing bankruptcy.

“Before I came here, I didn’t know anything about Dubai law. I assumed if all these big companies come here, it must be pretty like Canada’s or any other liberal democracy’s,” she says. Nobody told her there is no concept of bankruptcy. If you get into debt and you can’t pay, you go to prison.

“When we realised that, I sat Daniel down and told him: listen, we need to get out of here. He knew he was guaranteed a pay-off when he resigned, so we said – right, let’s take the pay-off, clear the debt, and go.” So Daniel resigned – but he was given a lower pay-off than his contract suggested. The debt remained. As soon as you quit your job in Dubai, your employer has to inform your bank. If you have any outstanding debts that aren’t covered by your savings, then all your accounts are frozen, and you are forbidden to leave the country.

While a landrover may certainly be bigger than an apartment in Manhattan, and while the story certainly has some open questions, I must add that there is a very good reason why folks in western societies trying to live in Islamic societies is a bad idea.

I mean, seriously. Sharia law mandates cutting your hands off for theft, and stoning people to death for sex outside marriage or for even giving up your religion.

Yes, they could have done several things differently — but the most important of them all?  Not having left western civilization in the first place.