Indy Telecom & Industrial Media

Poor performance of the economy, militancy, provincial wars and corruption — eventually stuff has to hit the fan some day.

Turns out that Pakistan is facing bankruptcy, with its central bank effectively having only about $3 billion in its coffers from the $8 billion in foreign currency and about $5 billion in forward liabilities.

Of course, now would be the perfect time for them to offer up their nukes in exchange for international aid. However, the rest of the world does not seem to be in any shape to help anyone, so that may not necessarily work. That said, that might just be wishful thinking on my part, of course.

What’s more likely to happen is that they would get international assistance from certain middle eastern countries and possibly China.

And to be completely fair, an economically strong Pakistan is more likely to be well educated, less militant and hopefully, more able to relate to their secular and democratic neighbor.

That said, I am reminded of the CIA Global Trends 2015 report that effectively states that Pakistan would probably be a failed nation state by 2015:

Pakistan will be more fractious, isolated, and ependent on international financial assistance. (pg. 64)

…

Pakistan, our conferees concluded, will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive politics, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction. Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical Islamic parties. Further domestic decline would benefit Islamic political activists, who may significantly increase their role in national politics and alter the makeup and cohesion of the military — once Pakistan’s most capable institution. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the central government’s control probably will be reduced to the Punjabi heartland and the economic hub of Karachi. (pg. 66)